Three years ago, the Book Club read and discussed The Great Influenza by John B. Barry. The book was written in 2004 and the paperback version, including an Afterward on the H1N1 (Swine) Flu, was published in 2009.

In the Afterward, the author noted that he was a consultant with both the Bush and Obama administrations. In 2009 Barry stated that the nation was not ready for a moderate pandemic, much less a severe one. He also added: "In 1918 humans gave that year's H1N1 virus to swine. We believe novel H1N1went the other way, that it had been circulating in swine and crossed the species barrier in 2009, sparking the first human pandemic in forty-one years."

In his analysis of the potential impact of a pandemic, Barry was concerned that our nation's social behavior has greatly changed since 1918. We eat a much greater percentage of our meals outside the home and consume more perishable food. In addition American business has adopted "just-in-time" delivery of inventory, which means that problems with a large supplier could disrupt or shut down the supply system. He also predicted that the "most mild pandemic will likely overwhelm the health care system. Seasonal influenza often shuts down emergency rooms."

The author advocated a vaccine to protect us. There are problems with this solution. All influenza vaccines are manufactured by growing viruses in eggs, so it can take at least five months to make 60-80 million doses. Not only is this insufficient for the U. S., but less than one-third of the quantity is produced here.

What do we do if there is no vaccine? The author recommends hand washing, cough etiquette, and proper use of masks. If the pandemic is severe, he recommends telecommuting (more reliable today than in 2009), closing schools, and canceling sporting events (in 1919 the Stanley Cup finals were cancelled).

Barry closes with the following: 

   "So the final lesson of 1918, a simple one yet one most difficult to execute, is that those who occupy positions of authority must lessen the panic that can alienate all within a society. Society cannot function if it is every man for himself. By definition, civilization cannot survive that.

   Those in authority must retain the public's trust. The way to do that is to distort nothing, to put the best face on nothing, to try to manipulate no one. Lincoln said that first, and best.

   A leader must make whatever horror exists concrete. Only then will people be able to break it apart."

Until we meet again...Stay happy.